Lalu, Nitish could be Congress’ Maya, Mulayam of Bihar: Sumit Pande

The fissures in the BJP were visible after Narendra Modi was made the campaign chief for 2014 polls and now the JD(U) parts ways with its long-time electoral partner on the Modi issue. Is the rise of Modi doing more harm than good for the NDA? CNN-IBN’s deputy bureau chief Sumit Pande joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.

nitish_live_17june2 Q. Who is more at fault, JD(U) or BJP? and whether Nitish has erred in his calculations? Asked by: Manish Paul

A. Both have their political compulsions and interests to protect.

Q. Who will gain in Bihar and in India, after the split? Asked by: Manoj Sinha

A. Difficult to say at this point in time…JDU-BJP has been an assiduously built alliance both at political and socio-economic levels…it is tried and tested….separation will ensue mergers and de-mergers at the grassroots…untested alliances and combinations will be built…so things remain fluid for now.

Q. Why Lallu is very silent on this..he was challenging Nitish after Modi was elevated to quit the alliance now he had done it then Lallu is very quit. Asked by: jagan

A. Lalu on one hand stands to gain from division in the adversarial ranks….but at the same time he faces a tough challenge in protecting his minority vote-bank….say for example…on the 19th June trust vote…will lalu vote with the BJP in the trust motion being proposed by Nitish Kumar.

Q. After the split sympathy of the people is with which party in Bihar? Asked by: Gujna

A. Too early to assess the situation.

Q. JD(U) plus Cong on one side and RJD and Paswan on other side can crush BJP in Bihar. What do you say? Asked by: Vishwas

A. I think Congress is looking at it differently…JDU out of NDA provides UPA another cushion at the centre to complete UPA’s second term in office… Cong would ideally want to deal Bihar the UP way…Lalu and Nitish could well be its Maya and Mulayam of Bihar.

Q. After is Split most of the Bihar people are fearing of Lallu coming back and destroying all the good work done by NDA in Bihar..now Lallu is clear gainer in this split. Asked by: Bhusan

A. This factor is something on which JDU is also relying on…cornering a section of the upper caste despite breakup.

Q. Don’t you think that now Muslim vote split between JD(U), RJD-LJP and Congress, will benefit BJP? Asked by: CH.V.Kumar

A. Too early to predict anything…Congress could be the key in this re-alignment.

Q. Dear Sir, Do you think that BJP may not feel affected by JDU split since it may get more seats in UP? Is BJP over ambitious of securing more seats in UP? Asked by: Raaj

A. BJP feels its revival at the national level is contingent upon party’s performance in UP.

Q. Approximately how many seats will each of the parties BJP, JD(U), RJD, LJP and Congress get in the next LS polls. Will the poll predictions by various channels turn out to be true? Asked by: Mit

A. Poll predictions in a multi-party polity are a tough job.

Q. Is the BJP heading towards pre 96 splendid isolation? Asked by: Kamal

A. The current political milieu is unlikely to generate numbers resulting in single party rule for some years to come.

Q. Don’t you think too much of Modi bashing on his role in 2002, will actually help Modi. Would he not become a mascot for a brand new urban Hindutva, especially youth who are aspirational. Asked by: bharat

A. Modi’s biggest strength is his ability to communicate with the cadres directly….making the organisation and its instruments redundant in political mobilization…this though is at times out of sync with RSS’ age old dictum of collective responsibility. Read More..

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